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It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

This is a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.